Les systèmes de transport intelligents, École Polytechnique de
Montréal
Articles du groupe MADITUC
The contribution of the confusion matrix to the analysis of mode choice in Montreal. |
Référence:
SPURR, Tim, CHAPLEAU, Robert (2007). The contribution of the confusion matrix to the analysis of mode choice in Montreal., Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2007, Washington, #07-2925, pages 15. |
Type:
Publication avec comité de lecture
Organisme:
Transportation Research Board
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Résumé
Textbooks on travel demand modeling emphasize multinomial logit (MNL) as a pragmatic disaggregate model of mode split. Most often, the key issues are model estimation and model specification including the choice of the explanatory variables, the form of the variables in the utility function, and the definition of the choice set. This paper estimates a simple logit model and then applies a confusion matrix (where the results are partitioned between correct and incorrect predictions) to analyze the errors. The experiment is based upon the Montreal case, where a large regional origin-destination survey was conducted in 1998. The examined dataset consists of 12,383 recorded trips into the Montreal CBD, the center of a region of 3.5 million people. The results indicate that a detailed examination of the mis-specified elements in a logit model can reveal important details about the underlying behavioral phenomena. |
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