Référence:
CHAPLEAU, Robert, MORENCY, Catherine (2004). Modelling urban Mobility with Geodemographics, 10th World Conference on Transportation Research, Istanbul, Turquie |
Type:
Conférence avec publication
Organisme:
World Conference on Transportation Research
Retour
Nouvelle recherche
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Résumé
Traditional urban travel forecasting methods are based on zoning systems and are limited to solely considering variables such as the number of households, income level, retail and non-retail employment, and other non spatial, aggregate figures. Thus, phenomena derived from dynamic urban sprawl and population aging are not taken into account, because of their inherent spatial structure.
This paper examines the evolution of travel behaviours with the help of data from two large scale telephone interviewed Origin-Destination surveys held in the Greater Montreal Area (1987 and 1998). First, a review of the modelling context of the totally disaggregate approach is proposed. Then, a spatial analysis of key demographic variables (household size, income, age, car accessibility) is presented. Measures revealing the spatial distribution of those attributes and confirming the radioconcentric structure of the study area are then discussed. This is followed by the presentation of key facts relating demography, spatial location and travel behaviour. An interactive application is used to compare those figures. Finally, as a primer to geomodelling, relations aiming at forecasting the use of transit are presented. These include households and people demographic attributes, spatial location as well as the extent of the transit network in the area. |